Real games. Real weather. Real closing totals.
For every FBS game inside the forecast window, we take the kickoff forecast at that stadium — temperature, wind, and rain chances — and, at Power 4 home venues, find every game played there in similar conditions since 2010. Then we report what actually happened: total points, and how often those games went over or under their own real closing totals. Scoring environments drift from season to season — Power 4 venues have run several points a game higher in some years than others for reasons that have nothing to do with weather — so older seasons are adjusted onto today's environment before they are averaged, and an era gap isn't mistaken for a weather effect. Domes are weather-neutral and flagged as such. Games at venues outside the Power 4 history set still show the full kickoff forecast and delay outlook. Rebuilt automatically every morning as forecasts sharpen toward kickoff.