MLB props: our number vs the books'
Every home run and strikeout prop on the slate. Our number starts from a batter-by-batter model — weather, park, umpire, opposing pitcher — blends in the market, and shows you exactly where it disagrees with the books' price.
Today's free pick
The top of our home run board — free every day, graded in public like everything else.
The boards
Tap any row for the breakdown behind the number.
Our HR chance blends our model (60%) with the market's own price (40%). Edge = our chance minus the books' chance with their margin taken out — the number we grade value flags on.
Expected home runs come from our batter-by-batter model with tonight's weather, park and umpire. Our run total is each lineup's scoring rate against tonight's starter, adjusted for weather and umpire — a lean shows when it's a full run off the books' total.
The MLB record
Graded every morning from the box scores — at the price that was posted, never a better one.
How our HR number is built
Each hitter starts from his own home run rate over three seasons, then we adjust for tonight: the weather at that park (from every game there since 2015), the plate umpire's history, the opposing starter's HR/9 and the park itself.
That model number is blended 60/40 with the market's own price — the market knows about lineups and injuries we don't. Where we still disagree by 5+ points on a priced prop at +150 or longer, with at least three books posting, it earns a value flag.
What "the books' number" means
Prices are the sportsbooks' own numbers, pulled through the day — the median across US books unless a best price is shown. They're never ours, and they move.
Every prop is graded at the price posted when we published it. A hit at +400 is +4.00 units; a miss is −1.