Real games. Real weather. Real closing lines.
For every NFL game inside the forecast window, we take the kickoff forecast at that stadium — temperature, wind speed and direction relative to the field axis, and rain chances — and find every game played at that same stadium in similar conditions since 2015. Then we report what actually happened: total points, and how often those games went over or under their own real closing totals. Wind is classified against the field's long axis — crosswinds punish kicking and deep passing more than wind straight down the field. Domes and closed roofs are weather-neutral and flagged as such. Rebuilt automatically every morning as forecasts sharpen toward kickoff.