NFL props: where the weather moves the line
When the forecast turns, some players' numbers turn with it. We match each quarterback, kicker, back and receiver to their own history in that weather and post the lean beside the books' line and price.
This week's free pick
Our strongest weather lean with a real line posted — free, and graded like everything else.
The boards
Tap any row for the reasoning.
Split = the player's average in this kind of weather against his normal, and how many games it's built on. Lines and prices are the books' — the median across US books when we last pulled them.
Schedule and officiating spots: body clock, rest, the crew's scoring history. Watch means worth knowing, not a bet on its own.
Every player we track in this week's weather games, split for that game's conditions — the raw material behind the leans. Build your own.
The NFL record
Every lean graded against the box score — props at the line and price that was posted.
How a weather lean is made
A lean needs two things: a forecast strong enough to matter (15+ mph wind, or a sub-40° kickoff) and a player whose own games in that weather moved his number — quarterbacks down 8%+ in wind over 5+ games, receivers down 10%+, backs up 5%+ when the wind pushes teams to run.
The split, its sample and the forecast behind it are on every row. Small samples are shown so you can judge them.
What "the books' number" means
Lines and prices are the sportsbooks' own — the median across US books at our last pull, never ours. Books post player props a few days out; leans can appear before their prices do.