Name: CFB Trench Edge: OL/DL Weight Mismatches for Rushing Props
Brand: DFSRADAR
Price: 15.00 USD
Availability: InStock

DFSRADAR PRO · CFB

Trench Edge — the rushing-prop signal nobody else is selling.

Every game's OL-vs-DL weight mismatch, quintile-ranked and backtested across 5,900+ games. Heavier lines control games — we measured it.

$15 / month — all sports included

🏋️ Trench edges for every FBS game — each offense's line weight vs the defensive front it's actually facing, centered against the league norm
📏 A backtested ladder, not a hunch — 4 seasons, 5,916 games: top-quintile trench edges rushed for 4.40 YPC vs 4.01 for bottom-quintile, +11 rushing yards a game
💨 Weather-stacked spots — when a top-quintile trench edge meets a 15+ mph kickoff forecast, the run-heavy script gets flagged
🎯 Rushing-prop leans — TARGET the ground games behind the biggest fronts, FADE the ones getting out-weighed
📊 A public track record — every lean archived the moment it posts, graded against actual rushing box scores

DFS Kitchen All-Access members get PRO included — just log in with your Kitchen account. One PRO subscription covers every DFSRADAR sport.

· Account · Log out

← All desks

CFB Desk

Week —

Step 1 · The idea

Heavier lines control games

We weigh every FBS offensive line against the exact defensive front it plays this week. Four seasons of data say the biggest weight edges rush for +0.4 yards per carry over the smallest.

Step 2 · The flags

Green = target, red = fade

RUSH EDGE — a top-20% weight edge on a team that actually runs. STACKED RUSH — same edge plus a windy forecast (run-heavy script). RUSH FADE — a bottom-20% edge: their ground game is out-gunned.

Step 3 · The bet

Rushing props, nothing else

Each card names the back and how the team used him last season. This board is for rushing props only — our backtest found no side or total edge, so we don't sell one.

This week's rushing-prop leans

The slate — every game's trench edge, both ways

Q5 (green) = a line in the top 20% of weight edges this season · Q1 (red) = bottom 20%. The lean cards on the first tab come from these.

Trench view — the weight mismatch, to scale

Each blocker is drawn to his unit's average weight — the gold arrow shows which way the trench tilts.

Line of scrimmage · this week

drag to look around

Wind factor — sixteen seasons of outdoor Power 4 football

Loading…

The ladder

This week, placed on the ladder

Outdoor games only, windiest first. The percentile says how unusual that kickoff wind is for that stadium — a figure the sample can actually carry, unlike a per-venue effect size.

The record — graded every week

First slate grades after opening weekend — every lean is already archived.

The receipts — 4-season backtest

Every FBS offense-game from four seasons, bucketed by its OL-vs-opposing-DL weight edge (centered against that season's league norm):

A clean, monotone ladder: the heavier your line is relative to the front it's facing, the more you rush for — about +0.4 yards per carry and +11 rushing yards a game from bottom quintile to top. That's the signal this board sells, and the only claim we make: this is a rushing-output edge for rushing props, not a picks service for sides or totals.

How the trench board works

Every FBS roster's offensive-line and defensive-line average weights are computed from current-season rosters. For each game, each offense gets a trench edge: its OL average minus the opposing DL average, centered against the league-wide norm (offensive lines naturally run heavier than defensive fronts, so raw differences mislead — the centering is what made the backtest ladder appear). Edges are quintile-ranked against the full season's matchup set. Top-quintile edges become RUSH EDGE targets; when the kickoff forecast shows 15+ mph wind outdoors — the scripts that lean run-heavy — they upgrade to STACKED RUSH. Bottom-quintile edges become RUSH FADE flags. Weather joins from the same forecast engine as the free CFB radar. A top-quintile edge only becomes a rushing-prop TARGET if the offense actually runs the ball (pass-first teams — under a 44% run rate last season — stay on the board but never get flagged: real edge, wrong market). Each lean names the team's top returning rusher from last season's production, cross-checked against the current roster. Every lean is archived the moment it posts and graded publicly against actual rushing box scores — a TARGET hits when the team beats that week's FBS median yards per carry, a FADE hits when it lands below it, so a league-wide sloppy week can't fake our record either way — same receipts-first rules as every DFSRADAR board. We validated this signal for rushing output only; our backtest found no reliable edge for sides or totals, so this board makes no such claims. Tendencies, not guarantees.