Name: MLB Home Run Prop Targets & Umpire Model
Brand: DFSRADAR
Price: 15.00 USD
Availability: InStock

DFSRADAR PRO

Tonight's HR prop targets — before the books adjust.

Weather × umpire × pitcher × batter, shrunk and capped. Graded in public, every night.

$15 / month

💣 Ranked HR targets with our probability vs the books' live median price — VALUE flags when the edge clears 3 points
🏟️ Expected HRs per game and live actual-vs-projected tracking while the slate runs
⚖️ The umpire layer — 22,000+ games: ump × park splits, hot/cold streaks, with-ump batter history
🎯 K projections & game totals priced against the actual lines
📊 A public track record — every card archived and graded, calibration table included

DFS Kitchen All-Access members get PRO included — just log in with your Kitchen account.

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Tonight's slate — expected HRs

Matchup	Ump	Starters	Weather	Expected HRs	vs park norm	Actual

Expected HRs = the sum of every lineup batter's individual HR probability — a true expected value, not a park average × multipliers. Click a game for its top targets, ump card, intel & with-ump splits. Live scores come from MLB's free public stats API — zero odds credits used.

Full lineups — a number for everybody

Every batter in both lineups with our HR probability, live price, and factors. Rookies under 50 AB in our 3-season sample are shown without a number — we don't fake edges. Before lineups post (~4 PM ET), you see each team's projected nine.

Top HR targets

#	Batter	Game	HR chance	Factors	Best price	Edge

K props — starters

Pitcher	Game	Proj Ks	Line	O / U	Lean

Tonight's intel

Tonight's plate umps

Full leaderboard — every plate ump, 2017–2026

#	Umpire	Games	HR/G	vs league	Last 5	Runs vs lg

Ballpark HR factors — every home park, 2017–2026

#	Park	Games	HR/G	Factor	Read

A factor of 1.15 = 15% more HRs than an average park across the full dataset. Tonight's weather moves each park off this baseline — that delta is what the model prices.

Historical game log — most recent 150

Date	Matchup	Plate ump	HRs	Runs

First graded night lands after the next slate completes — every card is archived and scored automatically.

How the number is made

When lineups post (~4 PM ET), plate appearances follow the batting slot (leadoff ≈ 4.65, nine-hole ≈ 3.6) and benched players drop off the card; before lineups, everyone gets a flat 4.0. Each batter's three-season HR rate is shrunk toward the league average (small samples can't fake an edge), then adjusted by tonight's weather at the park (DFSRADAR's similar-conditions history), the plate umpire's HR tendency (shrunk hard, capped at ±10% — tightened after our public reliability tracking showed ump tendencies holding in only ~half of non-neutral games), and the opposing starter's HR/9 (shrunk by innings). The whole card also tracks a trailing two-week league HR environment from our own graded results, so a league-wide hot or cold stretch moves every number with it. That rate over ~4 plate appearances gives the HR chance. Expected HRs per game is the sum of those individual probabilities. Edge compares our chance to the books' median price with ~13 points of vig stripped out (one-sided HR markets run heavy); when a live price exists, 40% of the market's implied probability is blended into ours. Career batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — our graded receipts showed it adds noise, not signal (flagged targets hit 1 of 15), so it no longer moves a probability. A VALUE flag needs a 5-point edge, at least 3 books, and +150 or longer — at most five per night. With-ump splits (how tonight's batters and starters have fared with this exact plate umpire, 2022–2026) are context only — those samples are far too small to move a probability, and we won't pretend otherwise. Game totals blend season offense, the opposing starter's shrunk ERA, the park's weather runs history, and the ump's runs tendency. K projections = shrunk K/9 × shrunk innings per start × the weather strikeout edge at half weight × the plate ump's strikeout environment (shrunk, capped ±6% — a wide zone is worth real Ks), shown against the line with no OVER/UNDER call — we retired K lean calls on 8/25 after a 57-call public test ran 47%, and the full record stays on the Record tab. The Record tab also grades our per-game Expected HRs (average error, share within ±1 and ±2) and tracks whether non-neutral umpires' tendencies actually held — if that reliability number sags, we shrink the ump factor harder. The receipts tune the model. Live scores and HR tracking come from MLB's free public stats API and cost nothing. Every night's card is archived and graded — the calibration table is the receipts.